The NFL: Week 9 Analysis

  • Detroit Lions (+2) @ Oakland Raiders try to get Lions at +3 if possible 
  • Cleveland Browns (to win) @ Denver Broncos (no more than -2 if you can get it
  • Week 9 Early Analysis Picks
(The lines provided above are good as of 11:04pm on Wednesday (10/30/2019)

Last week we gave you guys a nice gem. The Giants hadn’t scored a point in the first quarter for the previous 3 games leading up to week 8. Well if you stuck with us, you capitalized off that piece of information as they have now gone 4 straight games without scoring and the Lions won the 1st quarter last week. Hopefully we can give you a little more with this week’s matchups.

Detroit Lions (+2) @ Oakland Raiders try to get Lions at +3 if possible

Dear Detroit, we are back again! Yes, another Detroit Lions pick is coming your way. Yes, the Oakland Raiders are showing some life. Yes, they gave Houston a good run last week. But this week we are going to play the numbers and see where that goes.

The Detroit Lions handed the New York Giants another loss last week as expected but did not cover the spread. This week as (+2), 2 point underdog, the Lions are bound to break out to a fast lead as they usually do. Averaging 16.7 points in the first half as a road team this year, look for the Lions to gain the lead early. Usually the Lions always let their opponents back in the game for the 2nd half but Oakland’s home numbers are not that pleasant. In the 2nd half, the Oakland Raiders average 5 points a game and give up 8. Although these numbers seem low, the Lions give up about 16 second half points on average. For entertainment purposes, we still like the Lions +2 with the Lions up early and the game being close in the end.

Bonus Insight

With the information listed above, if you’re feeling frisky, keep an eye on the Lions to win the 1st half or for the Oakland Raiders to win the 2nd half.

Cleveland Browns (MoneyLine) @ Denver Broncos (no more than -2 if you can get it)

The Cleveland Browns have lost 3 straight and are heading to Denver. With no Joe Flacco to face and after suffering an embarrassing loss to the Patriots last week, the Browns are poised to go into Denver and put a W on the board. Cutting to the chase, some of our models love the Browns to win by 1.5 to 3 points before the Flacco injury. So, if we assume that Joe Flacco’s 6th round pick of a backup will not help the constipated Broncos offense, one could say that our models should be even more accurate. Some of the staff were able to get the Browns at (+1) and (+2) before the Flacco injury. If you didn’t get it at that point, we’re sorry. The current spread for the Browns is (-3) but keep in mind, this Browns team maybe fractured and you never know how that affects a team. This line has swung 5 points from its lowest to its highest. For entertainment purposes, we still like the Browns to win outright and at best we liked them at (-2) prior to the Flacco injury. It looks like we are playing it safe with that number, but we also prefer to eat steak instead of junior bacon cheeseburgers at the end of the night.

Honorable Mention

If you’ve been following along with us, you know we love to add our honorable mention picks, just in case you were on the fence about certain picks. Although we don’t recommend these picks, some of us on the staff do like them, personally.

Weirdly enough some of our staff likes the Chicago Bears (+5) in Philadelphia. It’s one of those games that you look at with the naked eye and say: “Philly should have this.” But then you crunch the numbers and you’re reminded of how good the Bears defense is and how many times Philly has let you down in big spots this year.

According to our sliding scale, the Eagles being favored at (-5) gives them a 40% chance at of covering. A value would have been about (-2.5) or even (-3). Lastly, the public ticket shows that 50% of the people took the Bears on the spread, the other 50% went with the Eagles. For entertainment purposes, you know who we like…but we just can’t recommend it to you due to the Bears quarterback woes.

Our last team up for honorable mention is the Houston Texans. Watching the numbers move from week 7 to week 8, the Houston Texans are currently trending downwards. But when we further look into the numbers, is it because the Houston Texans are allowing their opponents to stay in the games with them, or have the Jaguars been beating up on garbage the last couple of weeks…I think we’ll go with the latter.

The Jags have beat up on the Jets and the Bengals, two of the worst teams in the NFL at 0-8 and 1-7 respectively. The lack of competition has allowed the Jaguars to pad their numbers, as a result, making the Texans line close. Now, you can find the spread for this game at Texans (-1) at -120. But the MoneyLine is -122.

But all this is moot due to the fact that the game is in London. While we would love the Houston Texans in Houston or in Jacksonville, London is a different story. The field in London always seems to be poor. The players get into all types of mischief. The 6+ hour time difference can also be an issue. But if you're feeling adventurous, you know what we like...we just can't recommend it.

All the best this week and remember to enjoy the games. See you soon.

-The MoneyLine Blog