The NFL: Week 11 Analysis

  • New England Patriots (-3.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles (buy at -3 if possible)

  • Oakland Raiders (-3) 1st quarter vs Cincinnati Bengals

(The lines provided above are good as of 10:19pm on Thursday 11/14/2019)

If you were with us for week 10, we capitalized very comfortably on the Ravens at (-9.5) over the Bengals. However, we took an L on the Chargers at (-1) over the Raiders. The Chargers just couldn’t get out of their own way after going down 10-0 in the first quarter, but that’s sports. Hopefully you didn’t take any of our honorable mention picks, which we never encourage. Although Pat Mahomes came back, the Kansas City Chiefs defense didn’t. The same could be said for the Cowboys at (-3) at home. We get back on the horse and ride into week 11.

New England Patriots (-3.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles

This week, we have a play that we like but at a slightly lower number. The New England Patriots are heading to Philadelphia to play the Eagles with both teams coming off bye weeks. The Eagles coming off a strong win against the Bears and the Patriots coming off a humbling loss against the mighty Ravens.

According to our models the Patriots on the year according to when they play on the road should be 9 point favorites. However, over the last 3 weeks the Patriots have been giving up an average of one touchdown more on defense and scoring a field goal less on offense compared to their yearly average. On the flipside, Philadelphia has been scoring a touchdown less and giving up a field goal more over the last 3 weeks. However, the point spread with fair value is at 3.5 points.

Based on just the last few weeks of stats, we our models show the Patriots as roughly a 3.8 point favorite. While we like them at 4 points and 3.5, we would rather be safe than sorry and take them at (-3).

So, for entertainment purposes we like the New England Patriots at (-3) if you can get them. They were being offered throughout most of the week at (-3) for a premium. The last time these two teams faced each other was the big game a few years ago, and who could forget the Philly Special? When Bellichick has time to prepare during the regular season, he usually gets the job done. Let’s see if that still stands.

Oakland Raiders (-3) 1st quarter vs Cincinnati Bengals

The Oakland Raiiiiiiders (Chris Berman Voice) have been on a nice little 2 game win streak lately. After knocking off the “Los Angeles” Chargers last week they have an opportunity to pick up their third straight win against the worst team in the NFL, the Cincinnati Bengals.

The Bengals have scored ZERO points in the first quarter of the last few games. The Bengals are also sporting a new quarterback who got trounced last week against the Baltimore Ravens defense. However, lets focus on the team stats.

While playing at home, Oakland scores 8.5 points per first quarter at home and allows 1.8 points in the 1st quarter. The Cincinnati Bengals have visibly been awful all year and it’s partially due to their slow start. The Bengals average 2.6 points per 1st quarter on the road and allow 5 points per first quarter. More importantly, over the last few games, they have not scored a single point in the first quarter of the last few games but have allowed 6 points on average.

For entertainment purposes we like the Raiders in the 1st quarter at (-3) so look for them to strike fast. Our models estimate that the Raiders should jump out to one of their usual starts at home and should be up anywhere between a field goal to 7 points.

Honorable Mention

This week’s honorable mention belongs to the New York Jets, God help us. This line began at the Jets +1. Then it creeped up to +1.5 then down to +1 again now it is up to +2.5. Guys, the Jets are bad but they aren’t that bad. Regardless if the game is on the road or at home, the Jets are better than the Redskins…but can they execute. We believe so…but can we trust them? No, not enough to recommend to you. The Jets are better at QB than the Redskins, the redskins have not eclipsed 20 points since Week 2. The Redskins best attribute is offensive rushing but the Jets strength is stopping the run. For entertainment purposes, we had 2 plays that we made on this game: one of which is the home team (the Washington Redskins) to score under 20 points…the other play that we liked was the Jets (+2.5). Listen, we don’t trust em, neither should you. But the value is there in favor of the Jets…but we’d advise you to stay away from this game if you can…we took it though.

Good luck and remember to enjoy the games this week!

-The MoneyLine Blog