The NFL: Week 10 Analysis

  • LA Chargers (-1) @ Oakland Raiders

  • Baltimore Ravens (-9.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals

(The lines provided above are good as of 11:44pm on Wednesday 11/06/2019)

Welp, Week 9 was a total disaster for our picks. Posting by far the worst week of the last 3 weeks, we provided Zero value to you. However, the best thing about it is that there is always next week! Week 10 is upon us and lets quickly get into this week’s picks

L.A Chargers (-1) @ Oakland Raiders

After picking against the Chargers last week, we clearly made a mistake and underestimated them against the Green Bay Chargers. After last week’s defensive performance, it made us look a little deeper into the Chargers. For starters, the Chargers over the last 3 weeks have had the 4th best defense in the league. More importantly, for the year they are the 8th best defense in the league only allowing 18.7 points per game. This showed last week when they only allowed 11 points from the Green Bay Packers. More importantly, it was a home game that was filled with Packer fans. How do they matchup? Over the past few weeks, the Oakland Raiders have stepped up their offensive performance to 26 points a game however they are smack dab in the middle of the offensive rankings at 16th in the NFL for points scored. Although they have stepped up their offensive production, their defense is still trash as they are ranked 26th in points allowed. More importantly, as of late they have been trending much worse, giving up more points per game than the Jets over the last handful of weeks as well at 31 points per game.

For entertainment purposes we like the Chargers on Thursday Night Football. We’ve run the numbers a few times through different models and we feel like the Chargers should win by 1 to 3.5 points. The spread right now is (-1). More importantly, it’s a short week, and that means less preparation for both teams, with that being said, it comes down to the better team winning. We feel it’s the Chargers.

Baltimore Ravens (-9.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals

You’ve seen the destruction. You saw Sunday Night Football. You saw what the Ravens can do. So you know why we like this game. The Baltimore Ravens just took down the undefeated New England Patriots. They ran up 37 points on the best defense in the league. In addition, they held Tom Brady to just 20 points. They utilized zero coverage on a number of plays which Brady struggles against. He hates the blitz. Welllllllll, guess what folks, I’m sure they will pull that out again against the Bengals. The “Red Rocket” Andy Dalton will be out this week as a coaches decision. More importantly, A.J Green was supposed to return but he had not practiced as of Wednesday. This leaves the Bengals one dimensional with simply just the run. Look for Baltimore to put the clamps on that. Cincinnati is ranked 24th in defensive scoring, although lately, they have improved it’s still not good enough.

Looking at the numbers: for entertainment purposes, we actually have the Ravens winning by 10 to 13 points. Maybe even more, barring any let down from last week’s win. We feel like the Bengals are tanking and maybe in the Tank for Tua Sweepstakes (Projected 1st pick QB from Alabama). We’ll see how it unfolds.

Honorable Mention

We have two honorable mention picks, the first one is simple. For entertainment purposes, we would love to recommend the Kansas City Chiefs against the unpredictable Tennessee Titans…….but we can’t. What we do know is if Pat Mahomes gets to start, that (-4.5) spread will jump to an easy (-6). We love the way he was jumping around after the game last week, but we can never really know if he is ready. However, some of the staff loves his chances to play and locked him in at what they feel is a low number of (-4.5).

For entertainment purposes, the second honorable mention pick is the Cowboys  (-3) over the Minnesota. The question is, which Cowboys team will we get? Which Vickings team will we get? That’s just too much to think about. Some of the staff took the Cowboys at (-2.5) before they took the field against the Giants. Now the spread is (-3). We’ll let you decide what you want to do with this information.

As always, good luck and remember to enjoy the games this week!

-The MoneyLine Blog