The NFL: Week 12 Analysis

Baltimore Ravens (-3) @ Los Angeles Rams (we recommend buying at -2.5 if possible)

Detroit Lions (-3.5) vs Washington Redskins

(The lines provided above are good as of 1:20 pm on Saturday 11/23/2019)

Week 11 has come and gone. Naturally, as we approach the end of the year, the picks get slimmer and slimmer as the lines get tighter and tighter. We nailed the Patriots (-3.5) pick as they beat the Eagles 17-10 in Philly in an absolute struggle. Our other pick was a shocking failure as the Bengals broke their 1st quarter scoreless streak and beat the Raiders 7-0 in the 1st quarter while we had the Raiders at (-3). Let’s dive into picks for week 12.

Baltimore Ravens (-3) @ Los Angeles Rams (we recommend buying at -2.5)

The Ravens have done their thing, absolutely steam rolling their opponents by way of the rushing attack. The Ravens are number one in rushing offense and it’s not even close. The Rams are 5th in stopping the run only allowing 89.1 yards per game and 4th in stopping the run at home only allowing 79.5 yards per game for home and away split. Baltimore on the other hand is ranked 7th in run defense but 11th at stopping the run while on the road giving up 100 yards per game. Baltimore allows 225 yards a game through the air while on the road, while the Rams are ranked 12th at home in passing.

According to our models, the Ravens should win by roughly 6 to 9 points but we wouldn’t be surprised if it came down to one of the lower key numbers of 3, 4 or 6. Reason being it’s a primetime game and the Rams may play up to the Ravens potential.  For entertainment purposes, we like the Ravens at -2.5…no more than -3. At the conclusion of Sunday night’s games, 2.5 was available and really hasn’t returned to that level since. However, you are allowed to buy this number at -2.5 if need be.

Detroit Lions (-3.5) @ Washington Redskins

The Detroit Lions make their way East to face the Redskins. The Redskins seem like they have a lot of disfunction in behind the scenes. The change of coaches, the QB being unable to get the attention of his offensive line, and their offense is horrible. Ranking 26th in rushing offense and 32nd in passing, the Redskins average just under 13 points a game…making them the worst offense in the league.

The Detroit Lions aren’t exactly world beaters but their passing offense ranks 8th since Stafford has been out and they are an actual team. According to our models, they are due to win by 5 to 7 points for this game.

The Lions are favored by -3.5 points. For entertainment purposes, buy yourself the half point and bring the number down to -3. It’s worth the purchase if you win or push. Especially if you saw how the Texans(-3.5) vs Colts game ended on Thursday Night Football.

Honorable Mention

Last week’s honorable mention was the Jet’s at +2.5. This week we have another underdog with the Cincinnati Bengals at +6.5. We know, unfavorable. However, the Bengals showed life last week, more importantly the Steelers had a lot of controversy surrounding them as well as key offensive parts out this week. Last but not least, we ran this model over and over and the largest number to win by was 6 for the Steelers. This was before Juju and Connor were questionable. This game is a division rival as well and the Bengals have yet to win a game. If you need a 3rd pick, this shouldn’t be it but look for it to be a sleeper.

Good luck and remember to enjoy the games this week!

-The MoneyLine Blog