NFL: WEEK 7
- Rams at -3 (-2 if you can get it)
- Saints at +3.5 (+4 if you can find it again)
- Texans at +1
(Lines above quoted as of 12:10 am 10/16/19)
Week 7 in the NFL is the beginning of rough waters for the average sports bettor. Each year, the sportsbooks use stats from the previous year(s) strictly as a guide, to help set lines for weeks 1 through 4 of the current NFL season. Since the sample size through 4 games is small, the lines that Vegas presents are softer. By week 5 and 6, we see the lines take shape. By weeks 7 and 8, things get very tight. Don’t worry we’re here to help you strategize.
Los Angeles Rams (-3) @ Atlanta Falcons
The Rams have hit a rough patch dropping their last three straight. They are up next to play the Falcons in Atlanta who dropped their last four games as well. The difference between these two teams is that one of them is actually a solid team. Over the last 3 games, the Rams have lost by an average of 9.7 points while the Falcons have lost by an average of 12 points. In sports, the home team should have the competitive advantage due to possessing home field. However, it turns out that the LA Rams score more points and allow less points on the road than at home.
On the flipside, Atlanta continues to disappoint no matter the venue. After heavy analysis, we feel that although most places are offering the Rams on the spread at (-3), the fairest of values of the Rams should be bought at (-2). Most likely you won’t find that anywhere at the time this article was written but the number is trending downward and you may be able to find it at (-2.5) by Friday/Saturday morning.
For entertainment purposes, we would take the Rams at (-3) for 1 unit due to the fact that Atlanta just can’t be trusted. However, don’t be afraid to wait for a point value of (-2.5) to appear if you aren’t pressed to bet this game. Rams head coach, Sean McVey, is making his way back to Atlanta where he used to be an offensive coordinator. Since he’s left, the Falcons offense things haven’t been the same in Hotlanta. He is well aware of Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, and Devonta Freeman’s strengths and weaknesses. Look for him to exploit his knowledge of his old trio and expect the Rams to bounce back with a victory in Atlanta…besides can you see the Rams losing 4 straight?
As a secret bonus play, we like the Rams to win the first half. Atlanta usually gives up 2 touchdowns in the first half (at the very least) while the Rams give up about 10 points on average in the 1st half. Both teams score more of their points overall in the second half and they do well at trying to keep things closer than they appear to be. So look for a high scoring second half after halftime adjustments are made.
Houston Texans (+1) @ Indianapolis Colts
The Houston Texans are a chilly team. Sometimes a sweatshirt will do while other days you may need a down coat to put up with them. But as far as talent, they have it on offense. However, against AFC opponents, Houston is undefeated at 3-0 and against divisional opponents they are 1-0. Houston is another team that performs better on the road than they do at home in terms of scoring. However, they give up 4 more points per game on the road than they do at home. Since this is a divisional game, expect it to be a fight. However, our computer models like Houston as an underdog as +1. We will go a step further and say that our models like Houston to actually win by about a field goal. Depending on who you place your bets with, you could have bought into Houston at +2.5 with Draftkings on Monday morning. If you were able to land that number, congratulations, you deserve a pat on the back. The Colts are coming off their bye week, so they maybe well rested and ready to go or they maybe well rested and rusty. Regardless, for entertainment purposes: our models like Houston as an 1 point favorite (-1) to a 3 point favorite (-3) with a 58% chance of winning outright. With this being said, if you can get the Texans at fair value of -110 on the point spread of (+1) you’re getting good value. If you want to get risqué and go for the Texans to win outright on the moneyline and get better bang for your buck, go for it. Just remember in football the ball is not a perfect sphere, so one odd bounce and things may go the other way. No risk, no reward.
New Orleans Saints (+3.5) @ Chicago Bears
Who Dat? The Saints of course. Listed as a 3.5 point underdog at the time of this article, the Saints are a scrappy team with Teddy at the helm. He takes great care of the ball, safely limiting turnovers until the defense gets on the field and does their thing… allowing under 21 points a game this year no matter if they are on the road or at home (ranking 12th in points allowed on the road). Although the Bears defense is scary they are having issues producing on offense, especially at home. In two home games on the year, the Bears have averaged 9.5 points a game. But lets scrap that stat. Better yet lets scrap all of these stats and start over since each team is playing without their starting QBs. In the last 3 games, the Saints are ranked tied for 4th in points allowed with 13.3 points allowed per game. While the Bears are allowing 15 points. Teddy is holding the offense steady at 18 points a game which has propelled the Saints to the 3rd best team in the NFL.
Cutting the Fat: For entertainment purposes our computer models, see the Saints losing by 2 to 3 points. We were able to spot a line showing the Saints as a 4 point underdog (+4) at -110 on Sunday night (offered by Fanduel Sportsbook). That was a lean and tasty number. Unfortunately the folks caught on since then and has bought up the Saints with big money, thus driving this number down to (+3.5) for -125…this tells me that this number will soon be at an even +3 for the Saints by the end of the week, barring injury in practice.
For entertainment purposes…honorable mentions that didn’t make the cut:
Jacksonville Jaguars looked healthy at -3 against Cincy but Jacksonville tends to scare us from time to time. Although, Cincy maybe a sleeper to go winless this season, we really couldn’t trust either team here.
The Kansas City Chiefs were favored by 3.5 points (-3.5) on Sunday night. However, Denver is a hard place to play due to altitude…to the point where Denver’s defense is a whole 7 points better at home versus on the road. In addition, the Chiefs last 2 games in Denver (2017 and 2018) had them winning by only 3 points and 4 points. At the time of this article, you will find the Chiefs as a 3 point favorite for -115/-120. But with the Chiefs latest woes and the hideous track record of Thursday Night games, we simply couldn’t recommend this game although some guys on the staff took it for themselves.
Remember to enjoy the games this weekend.
-The MoneyLine Blog