The NFL: Week 8 Analysis

October 24, 2019

(The lines provided above are good as of 11: 30pm on Wednesday 10/23/2019)

Well it’s week 8. Hopefully you’ve had an opportunity to catch some of the early picks why they were still at a manageable number. We will quickly pay revisit those at the end of this article.

 

Detroit Lions (-0.5) vs NY Giants "1st Quarter Wager"

Normally, we love whole game picks. Even first/second half picks. Today we are going to get a little creative on the numbers since Vegas got a little tight with the lines this week. So, what we have here is something simple, for entertainment purposes we like Detroit to win the 1st quarter vs. the NY Giants. Crazy, right? We didn’t think so either. Let’s see why.

In the last 3 games, the Giants have scored 0 points in the first quarter. In addition to this Detroit on the years has averaged 8 points a game in the first quarter and has given up only an average of 4. In addition, when Detroit is home, they average 10 points a game in the 1st quarter while only giving up 4.7 at home. Lastly, in the last 3 games, Detroit has gotten busy scoring 11 points a game in the first while only giving up an average of 2 points, showing a slight uptick in offense and defense in the 1st quarter. This tells us that their opening drive game is solid. But as the quarters go on, the numbers tend to drop, going from 8 in the first, to 7 in the 2nd, to 3 in the 3rd, to 6 on average in the 4th. This shows that that once teams make their adjustments to the Lions, it is highly effective.

 

Bonus play

If you’re interested, for entertainment purposes, consider taking the Lions in the first half if you feel like you need more leeway. The half number is -3.5. If you’re able to find it at -3, we’d feel more comfortable if you took that to combat any last minute 2nd quarter TD’s. Both the Lions and the Giants are on three game losing streak, so I’m sure both teams will come out swinging. The only difference is, regardless of the records, one of these teams are exponentially better than the other.

 

Tampa Bay Bucs (+2.5) @ Tennessee Titans (possibly +3 by Friday night if you’re patient)

If you were able to catch the Tennessee Titans on Sunday, they showcased Tannehill at home with a reignited offense. That was last week. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are coming off a bye week and I’m sure they’re defensive coordinator, Todd Bowles has done his job researching Tannehill with his new team. In addition, with Bowles being a previous head coach to the New York Jets and playing Tannehill twice a year least year, I’m sure he took some mental notes.
According to our computer models, there were a few lines that were released this week had the favorites to beat the point spread with a success rate of 36% to 40%. This forces the bettor to either take the underdog or not bet. However, according to FiveThirtyEight.com the favorite is usually taken 65% of the time regardless of the probability of that team covering the spread. Don’t believe for a second that line makers don’t know this. So, let’s take a stab at them…for entertainment purposes let’s say we jump on the Tampa Bay Bucs at +2.5 points with a success rate of 60% to 64%. If you have the patience, there is a chance that this number may tick up to +3 between Thursday and Friday. So keep an eye out for it. We always love the +3 as it protects you from the typical loss by a field goal. If you tuned into the Tennessee Titans game last week, you saw how important the +3 was if you picked the Chargers as an underdog as they lost 23 to 20 to the Titans in Tennessee.

If possible, take a look at our "NFL Week 8 Early Analysis" article and if those lines are still available, consider looking into those. Be aware that Mahomes threw some passes in Wednesday’s practice. The Packers are dead smack in the middle of the pack (no pun) as far as sacks per game go, ranked 12th (4-way tie for 12 to 15th). With this being said, if KC decides to start Mahomes, it’s because of the mediocre pressure brought by the Packers. If Mahomes is ruled out, which is highly possible, jump on the number we gave before it shoots up to something unmanageable.

 

Honorable Mention

The Seattle Seahawks. The Seattle Seahawks. The Seattle Seahawks. Some guys on the staff loved them early at -3 and didn’t take them. Then we saw the slight uptick to -3.5. They loved it there as they watched Matt Ryan limp off the field and into the back. With the Seahawks getting handled at home and Matt Ryan’s ankle in question, (-3.5) looked beautiful because the number shot up to as much as (-7.5) in some casinos. Since then it has come down to (-5.5) but most places aren’t offering a line until Matt Ryan’s availability becomes available. If Matt Ryan plays and that number comes back down, maybe you should have a look at it. But as of right now the number of (-5.5) is a little high for a west coast team coming east at a 1pm start…but our models say it’s a fair value. Be mindful, there’s a reason why the line opened at (-3.5).

Good luck this week guys, and remember to enjoy the games.

-The MoneyLine Blog