The NFL: Early Week 15 Analysis
Buffalo Bills (+2) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (buy at +3 if possible)
Under 38.5 points Buffalo Bills @ Pittsburgh Steelers (Current number is 36.5)
(The lines provided above are good as of 11:20 pm on Tuesday 12/10/2019)
Did you miss us? We hope so! We took week 14 off since we saw no favorable match-ups that we were in love with. But this week, you’re in luck as we are here with an early analysis pick.
Buffalo Bills (+2) @ Pittsburgh Steeler’s (we recommend buying the point spread of +3)
Before the start of Week 14, the Buffalo Bills were listed as -1.5 point favorites for their match-up against the Steeler’s. Let’s play devil’s advocate…what if the Bill’s connected with their last TD pass across the middle of the end zone against the Baltimore Ravens and pushed overtime? What if the Pittsburgh Steelers didn’t score their special teams TD? Would the Bills be a 2 point underdog?
According to our systems, it seems as if the Bills should still be favored, across the board. We feel that they should be favored by 1 to 2 points. Every so often, Vegas will offer up a smoking mirror. We believe the Steeler’s being favored here is one of them. So for entertainment purposes, take the Bill’s (+2)…Buy an extra point if you feel like it’s worth protecting you from a loss by a field goal.
Under 38.5 points Buffalo Bills @ Pittsburgh Steeler’s (Current fair market value is 36.5 points)
Let’s say you’re not really feeling our Bills pick as the underdog this week. No problem, let’s feed you an under for that same game. Both defenses are top 10 defenses. The only difference is, the Pittsburgh Steelers rank 24th in rushing offense and 30th in passing offense while the Buffalo Bill’s are 9th in rushing offense overall (14th in rush offense at home) while they rank 27th in pass offense overall (13th in pass offense on the road). Yes, there should be some snow in the forecast but that doesn’t affect NFL games like rain and wind, do. So for entertainment purposes, take the under on this game. We prefer you take the under at 38 or 38.5 just to be safe. At 38.5, you provide yourself some cover from a push if the score happens to be 21 to 17.
Be sure to check back for our regular NFL week 15 analysis if we have one this Thursday or Friday.
Good luck and remember to enjoy the games this week!
-The MoneyLine Blog